Portfolio Manager Perspective
As We See It – Quarterly
April 2024
2024 First Quarter Update
We are encouraged by the broader gains in the U.S. equity markets during the last two quarters as the perceived likelihood of a 2024 recession receded. The economy and corporate earnings appear to be on stable ground as well. However, we also see caution signs for 2024. As before, these quarterly client reports are now available for prospective investors as well.
January 2024
2023 Fourth Quarter Update
Our client reports are now also available for prospective investors. 2023 ended strong, with the S&P 500 returning 11.7% for the quarter and 26.3% for the year. Aside from a select fee US-based mega-cap growth companies (Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, and the like), stock price performance was a mixed bag and generally much more muted.
January 2024
Opportunities in Healthcare?
The healthcare sector’s decline in 2023 was rooted in three factors: 1) A hangover from the previous higher use of healthcare during the Covid-19 pandemic; 2) Concerns about governmental changes in healthcare coverage for 2024; and 3) The emergence of the GLP-1 class of drugs, often used for weight loss, with the brand names Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and others.
October 2023
2023 Third Quarter Update
This quarterly shareholder newsletter, created for shareholders, is now available for prospective clients. Over the last 50+ years, August and September have been the worst-performing months (on average) for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and the third quarter of 2023 closed with a change in direction for the market. What was the change, and why?
July 2023
2023 Second Quarter Update
This quarterly shareholder newsletter, created for shareholders, is now available for prospective clients. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index grew 16.9% during the first half of 2023. This equity rally, however, was spurred by valuations in a select group of primarily large-cap stocks. Why the divergence?
June 2022
“Are We There Yet?”
– Every little kid on every road trip ever…
Investors are focused on when the current market decline will end. Unfortunately, unlike the parent driving the car to a destination, the markets do not have a defined destination.
February 2022
Valuation
Whenever the markets become volatile, suspicions grow that the end of a bull market may be near. History may provide a good example of what might happen when speculation runs rampant in the market – as it has been recently.
Historical Perspectives
2019 – 2010
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Patience is a Form of Action | December, 2019 | |
| How Bond Investing Has Changed | August, 2019 | |
| U.S. and China: The Benefits of Trade | August, 2019 | |
| How Demographics Influence Economic Growth | May, 2019 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Bear Markets | December, 2018 | |
| 110 Months of Economic Expansion | October, 2018 | |
| Trade War Primer | July, 2018 | |
| What’s Different About this Market Upswing? | April, 2018 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Tax Law Change | December, 2017 | |
| Greenhouse Effect | October, 2017 | |
| Investor Specific Benchmarks | July, 2017 | |
| Information Insight | April, 2017 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Automation | December, 2016 | |
| Risk Management | October, 2016 | |
| Fiduciary Rule | July, 2016 | |
| Don’t Predict. Prepare. | April, 2016 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Passive Index Funds | December, 2015 | |
| Holding the Course | October, 2015 | |
| Interest Rate Expectations | July, 2015 | |
| Ignoring the Headlines2013 | April, 2015 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Impact of a Strong Dollar | December, 2014 | |
| Not the Time to Panic | October, 2014 | |
| Is Wall Street Rigged? | July, 2014 | |
| Fast News vs. Slow News | April, 2014 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Coffee Can Portfolio | December, 2013 | |
| Assessing Risk | October, 2013 | |
| Stock Market Corrections | July, 2013 | |
| The Great Rotation | April, 2013 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| History of Income Tax | December, 2012 | |
| Contrary Opinion | October, 2012 | |
| Stock Market Indicators | July, 2012 | |
| Expect the Unexpected | April, 2012 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Catalysts to a Bull Market | December, 2011 | |
| Our Basic Principles | October, 2011 | |
| Client Asset Growth | July, 2011 | |
| Investment Philosophy | April, 2011 |
2009 – 2000
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| How far we’ve come, how little we’ve changed | December, 2009 | |
| Social Security | October, 2009 | |
| Credit Crisis Reaction | July, 2009 | |
| Capitalism Without Failure | April, 2009 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Economic Impact of Government Decision Makers | December, 2008 | |
| Que Sera, Sera | October, 2008 | |
| Oil Prices | July, 2008 | |
| Commodity Cycles | April, 2008 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Avoiding the Mood Swings | December, 2007 | |
| Contrary Opinion | October, 2007 | |
| Retirement Savings | July, 2007 | |
| Stagflation Revisited | April, 2007 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Every Great Mistake | December, 2006 | |
| The Energy Story | October, 2006 | |
| Time Horizons | July, 2006 | |
| Investment Goals Objectives | April, 2006 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Natural Resources | December, 2005 | |
| Investment Life Cycles | October, 2005 | |
| Cash Income Matters | July, 2005 | |
| Avoidance of Taxes | April, 2005 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Improve the Odds of Success | December, 2004 | |
| Energy | October, 2004 | |
| Why You Win or Lose | July, 2004 | |
| Division of Labor | April, 2004 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Commodities Cycle | December, 2003 | |
| Contrary Opinion | October, 2003 | |
| Rebalancing Risk | July, 2003 | |
| Fear & Greed | March, 2003 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Taxing Dividends | December, 2002 | |
| Secular Change – Contrary Opinion | September, 2002 | |
| In Times Like These … | June, 2002 | |
| Secular Bull Markets | March, 2002 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Diversification | December, 2001 | |
| Fear & Uncertainty in the Market | October, 2001 | |
| Railroad Internet Industries Connection | July, 2001 | |
| Bubbles | April, 2001 |
1999 – 1990
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Expanding World Markets | December, 1999 | |
| Economic Impact of the Internet | October, 1999 | |
| Long-Wave Economic Theory | July, 1999 | |
| Influence of a few Large Leaders | April, 1999 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Productivity | December, 1998 | |
| Contrary Opinion | October, 1998 | |
| Demographics | June, 1998 | |
| Stock Return Expectations | March, 1998 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| A Nation’s Wealth | December, 1997 | |
| Economic Ideas Move in Circles | October, 1997 | |
| Market Caution | July, 1987 | |
| Strength of Investor Speculation | June, 1997 | |
| When is Rich Enough? | March, 1997 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Income Considerations | December, 1996 | |
| How Could Our Ancestors Have Been So Wrong? | October, 1996 | |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | July, 1996 | |
| Economic Evolvement in Developing Countries | March, 1996 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Rate of Inflation | December, 1995 | |
| Middle Course is Best | October, 1995 | |
| Long-Wave Economic Theory | July, 1995 | |
| Growth in Developing Countries | April, 1995 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Investor Psychology | December, 1994 | |
| Speculative Mania | October, 1994 | |
| No Free Lunch | June, 1994 | |
| Timing the Market | March, 1994 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Tax Impact on Returns II | December, 1993 | |
| Contrary Opinion | October, 1993 | |
| Tax Impact on Returns | July, 1993 | |
| Economic Phases related to Political Thinking | April, 1993 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Long-Wave Economic Theory | December, 1992 | |
| Every Excess is Self-Correcting | October, 1992 | |
| International Investing | July, 1992 | |
| Age of Speculation | April, 1992 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Crisis Also Presents Opportunity | December, 1991 | |
| Contrary Opinion | October, 1991 | |
| Market Timing | July, 1991 | |
| Round-Trip Investing | April, 1991 |
1989 – 1986
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Not News Worthy | December, 1989 | |
| Investment Goals Plans | October, 1989 | |
| Crowd Mentality | July, 1989 | |
| Generating Investment Ideas | April, 1989 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Current Market Environment | December, 1988 | |
| Contrary Opinion | October, 1988 | |
| Climate of Stocks vs. Bonds | July, 1988 | |
| Demographic Patterns | April, 1988 |
| Title | Volume | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Market Correction | December, 1987 | |
| Valuation of the Stock Market | October, 1987 | |
| Contrarian Approach Defined | April, 1987 |