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Portfolio Manager Perspective

As We See It – Quarterly

January 2024

2023 Fourth Quarter Update

Our client reports are now also available for prospective investors. 2023 ended strong, with the S&P 500 returning 11.7% for the quarter and 26.3% for the year. Aside from a select fee US-based mega-cap growth companies (Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, and the like), stock price performance was a mixed bag and generally much more muted.

January 2024

Opportunities in Healthcare?

The healthcare sector’s decline in 2023 was rooted in three factors: 1) A hangover from the previous higher use of healthcare during the Covid-19 pandemic; 2) Concerns about governmental changes in healthcare coverage for 2024; and 3) The emergence of the GLP-1 class of drugs, often used for weight loss, with the brand names Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and others.

October 2023

2023 Third Quarter Update

This quarterly shareholder newsletter, created for shareholders, is now available for prospective clients. Over the last 50+ years, August and September have been the worst-performing months (on average) for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and the third quarter of 2023 closed with a change in direction for the market. What was the change, and why?

July 2023

2023 Second Quarter Update

This quarterly shareholder newsletter, created for shareholders, is now available for prospective clients. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index grew 16.9% during the first half of 2023. This equity rally, however, was spurred by valuations in a select group of primarily large-cap stocks. Why the divergence?

June 2022

“Are We There Yet?”

– Every little kid on every road trip ever…

Investors are focused on when the current market decline will end. Unfortunately, unlike the parent driving the car to a destination, the markets do not have a defined destination.

February 2022

Valuation

Whenever the markets become volatile, suspicions grow that the end of a bull market may be near. History may provide a good example of what might happen when speculation runs rampant in the market – as it has been recently.

Historical Perspectives

2021 – 2020

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Interest Rate EnvironmentNovember, 2021
ChangeAugust, 2021
Inflation?May, 2021
It’s Like Déjà vu All Over AgainMarch, 2021
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Politics in the Stock MarketNovember, 2020
Normal Is An IllusionAugust, 2020
Market AveragesMay, 2020

2019 – 2010

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Patience is a Form of ActionDecember, 2019
How Bond Investing Has ChangedAugust, 2019
U.S. and China: The Benefits of TradeAugust, 2019
How Demographics Influence Economic GrowthMay, 2019
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Bear MarketsDecember, 2018
110 Months of Economic ExpansionOctober, 2018
Trade War PrimerJuly, 2018
What’s Different About this Market Upswing?April, 2018
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Tax Law ChangeDecember, 2017
Greenhouse EffectOctober, 2017
Investor Specific BenchmarksJuly, 2017
Information InsightApril, 2017
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AutomationDecember, 2016
Risk ManagementOctober, 2016
Fiduciary RuleJuly, 2016
Don’t Predict. Prepare.April, 2016
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Passive Index FundsDecember, 2015
Holding the CourseOctober, 2015
Interest Rate ExpectationsJuly, 2015
Ignoring the Headlines2013April, 2015
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Impact of a Strong DollarDecember, 2014
Not the Time to PanicOctober, 2014
Is Wall Street Rigged?July, 2014
Fast News vs. Slow NewsApril, 2014
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Coffee Can PortfolioDecember, 2013
Assessing RiskOctober, 2013
Stock Market CorrectionsJuly, 2013
The Great RotationApril, 2013
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History of Income TaxDecember, 2012
Contrary OpinionOctober, 2012
Stock Market IndicatorsJuly, 2012
Expect the UnexpectedApril, 2012
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Catalysts to a Bull MarketDecember, 2011
Our Basic PrinciplesOctober, 2011
Client Asset GrowthJuly, 2011
Investment PhilosophyApril, 2011
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Stock Earnings Yields vs. Bond YieldsDecember, 2010
DeflationOctober, 2010
Wealth Differences: U.S. vs. ArgentinaJuly, 2010
China’s Economic ImpactApril, 2010

2009 – 2000

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How far we’ve come, how little we’ve changedDecember, 2009
Social SecurityOctober, 2009
Credit Crisis ReactionJuly, 2009
Capitalism Without FailureApril, 2009
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Economic Impact of Government Decision MakersDecember, 2008
Que Sera, SeraOctober, 2008
Oil PricesJuly, 2008
Commodity CyclesApril, 2008
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Avoiding the Mood SwingsDecember, 2007
Contrary OpinionOctober, 2007
Retirement SavingsJuly, 2007
Stagflation RevisitedApril, 2007
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Every Great MistakeDecember, 2006
The Energy StoryOctober, 2006
Time HorizonsJuly, 2006
Investment Goals ObjectivesApril, 2006
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Natural ResourcesDecember, 2005
Investment Life CyclesOctober, 2005
Cash Income MattersJuly, 2005
Avoidance of TaxesApril, 2005
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Improve the Odds of SuccessDecember, 2004
EnergyOctober, 2004
Why You Win or LoseJuly, 2004
Division of LaborApril, 2004
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Commodities CycleDecember, 2003
Contrary OpinionOctober, 2003
Rebalancing RiskJuly, 2003
Fear & GreedMarch, 2003
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Taxing DividendsDecember, 2002
Secular Change – Contrary OpinionSeptember, 2002
In Times Like These …June, 2002
Secular Bull MarketsMarch, 2002
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DiversificationDecember, 2001
Fear & Uncertainty in the MarketOctober, 2001
Railroad Internet Industries ConnectionJuly, 2001
BubblesApril, 2001
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Asset Allocation DiversificationDecember, 2000
Contrary OpinionOctober, 2000
Industrial RevolutionsJuly, 2000
Glimpse back at Electric Utilities IndustryApril, 2000

1999 – 1990

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Expanding World MarketsDecember, 1999
Economic Impact of the InternetOctober, 1999
Long-Wave Economic TheoryJuly, 1999
Influence of a few Large LeadersApril, 1999
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ProductivityDecember, 1998
Contrary OpinionOctober, 1998
DemographicsJune, 1998
Stock Return ExpectationsMarch, 1998
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A Nation’s WealthDecember, 1997
Economic Ideas Move in CirclesOctober, 1997
Market CautionJuly, 1987
Strength of Investor SpeculationJune, 1997
When is Rich Enough?March, 1997
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Income ConsiderationsDecember, 1996
How Could Our Ancestors Have Been So Wrong?October, 1996
Dow Jones Industrial AverageJuly, 1996
Economic Evolvement in Developing CountriesMarch, 1996
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Rate of InflationDecember, 1995
Middle Course is BestOctober, 1995
Long-Wave Economic TheoryJuly, 1995
Growth in Developing CountriesApril, 1995
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Investor PsychologyDecember, 1994
Speculative ManiaOctober, 1994
No Free LunchJune, 1994
Timing the MarketMarch, 1994
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Tax Impact on Returns IIDecember, 1993
Contrary OpinionOctober, 1993
Tax Impact on ReturnsJuly, 1993
Economic Phases related to Political ThinkingApril, 1993
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Long-Wave Economic TheoryDecember, 1992
Every Excess is Self-CorrectingOctober, 1992
International InvestingJuly, 1992
Age of SpeculationApril, 1992
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Crisis Also Presents OpportunityDecember, 1991
Contrary OpinionOctober, 1991
Market TimingJuly, 1991
Round-Trip InvestingApril, 1991
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Effective DiversificationDecember, 1990
Crisis Impact on Stock MarketOctober, 1990
Time HorizonsJuly, 1990
Greenhouse EffectApril, 1990

1989 – 1986

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Not News WorthyDecember, 1989
Investment Goals PlansOctober, 1989
Crowd MentalityJuly, 1989
Generating Investment IdeasApril, 1989
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Current Market EnvironmentDecember, 1988
Contrary OpinionOctober, 1988
Climate of Stocks vs. BondsJuly, 1988
Demographic PatternsApril, 1988
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Market CorrectionDecember, 1987
Valuation of the Stock MarketOctober, 1987
Contrarian Approach DefinedApril, 1987
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Current Market Environment OutlookDecember, 1986
Security ValuationsOctober, 1986